Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 2 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Daejeon Citizen FC win on 2026-10-27?

2 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 47¢ · $30K held · ended Oct 27

Yes47¢No53¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 17%

Total Value

$29.9K

Combined PnL

-$717.08

Smart Money Entry

40¢ → 47¢

+18% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 12 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$15.7K

Total Shares38,390

Combined PnL+$396.22

No10 traders

Total Value$14.2K

Total Shares25,280

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Yes — 17%No — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Yesavg 39.4¢	$13.2K	$13.5K	+$371.22	49% 127-134 (261)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 58.9¢	$4.0K	$3.7K	-$263.95	59% 44229-30605 (74834)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 58.4¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$150.04	49% 18383-18810 (37193)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 62¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$100	53% 5466-4812 (10278)
LZ lzh1CTR	Yesavg 44¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$25	43% 448-597 (1045)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 62.6¢	$4.1K	$1.9K	-$257.62	58% 40364-29157 (69521)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Noavg 61¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$165	47% 2366-2637 (5003)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 62.2¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$171.6	50% 24100-23732 (47832)
HRTrading	Noavg 59¢	$119.24	$114.13	-$5.11	54% 2548-2180 (4728)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 59.6¢	$90.52	$90.44	-$0.08	50% 11935-12084 (24019)
us391<$100	Noavg 55¢	$46.38	$46.8	+$0.42	51% 1630-1570 (3200)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 65¢	$3.71	$3.4	-$0.31	50% 32577-32115 (64692)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Yes

Invested

$13,151.68

Value

$13.5K

PnL

+$371.22

Record

49%

127-134 (261)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$3,951.33

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$263.95

Record

59%

44229-30605 (74834)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$3,042.94

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$150.04

Record

49%

18383-18810 (37193)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$2,480

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$100

Record

53%

5466-4812 (10278)

lzh1CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,199.99

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$25

Record

43%

448-597 (1045)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$4,058.36

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$257.62

Record

58%

40364-29157 (69521)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Invested

$1,830

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$165

Record

47%

2366-2637 (5003)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,585.99

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$171.6

Record

50%

24100-23732 (47832)

HRTrading

Invested

$119.24

Value

$114.13

PnL

-$5.11

Record

54%

2548-2180 (4728)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$90.52

Value

$90.44

PnL

-$0.08

Record

50%

11935-12084 (24019)

us391<$100

Invested

$46.38

Value

$46.8

PnL

+$0.42

Record

51%

1630-1570 (3200)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$3.71

Value

$3.4

PnL

-$0.31

Record

50%

32577-32115 (64692)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 12 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.