Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (53%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Beijing Guoan vs. Jeonbuk FC: O/U 3.5

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 48¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 27

Over53¢Under47¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

-$658.75

Smart Money Entry

62¢ → 47.5¢

-23% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares7,898

Combined PnL-$634.02

Over2 traders

Total Value$255.93

Total Shares594

Combined PnL-$24.72

Under — 71%Over — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Underavg 62¢	$3.1K	$2.8K	-$327.27	54% 55311-47349 (102660)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 61.5¢	$1.8K	$1.4K	-$425.49	50% 24100-23732 (47832)
└ Under leg	Underavg 61.5¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	-$568.88
└ Over leg	Overavg 34.8¢	$198.29	$341.68	+$143.39
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 63¢	$1.4K	$733.5	-$174.96	58% 40372-29160 (69532)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 63¢	$685.3	$568.38	-$116.92	50% 32578-32115 (64693)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 55.8¢	$225.53	$210.7	-$14.83	59% 44240-30609 (74849)
FO foooool	Overavg 46.3¢	$228.65	$204.93	-$23.72	50% 10445-10309 (20754)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Underavg 48¢	$78.8	$77.56	-$1.24	50% 11935-12084 (24019)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$48	$49	+$1
└ Over leg	Overavg 55¢	$30.8	$28.56	-$2.24
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Overavg 52¢	$52	$51	-$1	51% 1195-1129 (2324)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$2.16	$2.12	-$0.04	54% 2551-2184 (4735)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$3,149.86

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$327.27

Record

54%

55311-47349 (102660)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,826.88

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$425.49

Record

50%

24100-23732 (47832)

Both legs:

Under$1,628.5961.5¢-$568.88

Over$198.2934.8¢+$143.39

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,402.79

Value

$733.5

PnL

-$174.96

Record

58%

40372-29160 (69532)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$685.3

Value

$568.38

PnL

-$116.92

Record

50%

32578-32115 (64693)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$225.53

Value

$210.7

PnL

-$14.83

Record

59%

44240-30609 (74849)

foooool

Over

Invested

$228.65

Value

$204.93

PnL

-$23.72

Record

50%

10445-10309 (20754)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Under

Invested

$78.8

Value

$77.56

PnL

-$1.24

Record

50%

11935-12084 (24019)

Both legs:

Under$4848¢+$1

Over$30.855¢-$2.24

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Over

Invested

$52

Value

$51

PnL

-$1

Record

51%

1195-1129 (2324)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.16

Value

$2.12

PnL

-$0.04

Record

54%

2551-2184 (4735)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.