Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Beijing Guoan vs. Jeonbuk FC: O/U 2.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $933 held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 83%
2 arb excluded
$932.56
-$28.46
36.6¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Underavg 23.1¢ | $682.82 | $430.47 | -$252.36 | 59% 44243-30611 (74854) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 23.1¢ | $603.79 | $339.99 | -$263.81 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 76¢ | $79.03 | $90.48 | +$11.45 | |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 19.1¢ | $392.97 | $296.14 | -$96.84 | 50% 24101-23732 (47833) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 19.1¢ | $334.91 | $227.74 | -$107.18 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 73.8¢ | $58.06 | $68.4 | +$10.34 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 42.1¢ | $115.46 | $119.67 | +$4.21 | 58% 40375-29164 (69539) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Overavg 99¢ | $50 | $43.94 | -$6.06 | 67% 23021-11420 (34441) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 19.1¢ | $27.06 | $18.39 | -$8.67 | 50% 11935-12084 (24019) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 20.2¢ | $20.61 | $13.91 | -$6.7 | 54% 2554-2186 (4740) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 24.3¢ | $11.73 | $6.28 | -$5.45 | 54% 55313-47351 (102664) |
MY myxiCTR<$100 | Underavg 35¢ | $10.15 | $3.77 | -$5.8 | 68% 313-148 (461) |
Invested
$682.82
Value
$430.47
PnL
-$252.36
Record
59%
44243-30611 (74854)
Both legs:
Invested
$392.97
Value
$296.14
PnL
-$96.84
Record
50%
24101-23732 (47833)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$115.46
Value
$119.67
PnL
+$4.21
Record
58%
40375-29164 (69539)
Invested
$50
Value
$43.94
PnL
-$6.06
Record
67%
23021-11420 (34441)
Invested
$27.06
Value
$18.39
PnL
-$8.67
Record
50%
11935-12084 (24019)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$20.61
Value
$13.91
PnL
-$6.7
Record
54%
2554-2186 (4740)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$11.73
Value
$6.28
PnL
-$5.45
Record
54%
55313-47351 (102664)
Invested
$10.15
Value
$3.77
PnL
-$5.8
Record
68%
313-148 (461)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.