Beijing Guoan vs. Jeonbuk FC: O/U 1.5
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (14%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 14%
$2.5K
$72.35
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
14% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 fxwd12345 | Overavg 92¢ | $2.2K | $2.4K | +$194.29 | 69% 1470-656 (2126) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 19¢ | $45 | $50 | +$5 | 58% 40375-29164 (69539) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 7.2¢ | $93.29 | $0.64 | -$92.65 | 54% 55313-47351 (102664) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 9¢ | $19.78 | $0.11 | -$19.67 | 50% 10445-10309 (20754) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Underavg 5¢ | $10.78 | $0.11 | -$10.67 | 59% 29920-20643 (50563) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 9.6¢ | $3.55 | $0.02 | -$3.53 | 54% 2554-2186 (4740) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 2¢ | $0.43 | $0.01 | -$0.42 | 60% 9077-5998 (15075) |
fxwd12345Invested
$2,248.37
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$194.29
Record
69%
1470-656 (2126)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$45
Value
$50
PnL
+$5
Record
58%
40375-29164 (69539)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$93.29
Value
$0.64
PnL
-$92.65
Record
54%
55313-47351 (102664)
Invested
$19.78
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$19.67
Record
50%
10445-10309 (20754)
Invested
$10.78
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$10.67
Record
59%
29920-20643 (50563)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.55
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$3.53
Record
54%
2554-2186 (4740)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$0.43
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.42
Record
60%
9077-5998 (15075)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.