Will Jeonbuk FC win on 2026-10-27?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 73¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 27

Yes28¢No72¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

71¢ → 72.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares13,150

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$924.27

Total Shares2,020

Combined PnL-$9

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 69.9¢	$4.6K	$4.4K	-$207.91	54% 55311-47349 (102660)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 71.6¢	$4.7K	$2.8K	$-1.1K	58% 40372-29160 (69532)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 72¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$70.15	50% 24100-23732 (47832)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 47¢	$587.97	$606.74	+$18.76	50% 11935-12084 (24019)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 47.5¢	$729.87	$576.61	-$153.26	58% 1599-1172 (2771)
└ No leg	Noavg 72¢	$360.24	$362.77	+$2.53
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 47.5¢	$369.64	$213.84	-$155.8
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$329.12	$250.62	-$78.5	59% 44240-30609 (74849)
└ No leg	Noavg 69.6¢	$142.33	$153.38	+$11.04
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 48¢	$186.79	$97.25	-$89.55
SN SnakeBallCTR	Yesavg 46.8¢	$250.05	$248.2	-$1.85	50% 32578-32115 (64693)
FO foooool	Noavg 73.3¢	$216.97	$199.77	-$17.2	50% 10445-10309 (20754)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$76	$50	-$26	51% 1195-1129 (2324)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 44.4¢	$12.44	$13.32	+$0.88	60% 9075-5994 (15069)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 71¢	$15.55	$12.5	-$3.05	54% 2551-2184 (4735)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$6.81	$6.01	-$0.8	54% 5999-5086 (11085)

RN1

Invested

$4,588.38

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$207.91

Record

54%

55311-47349 (102660)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$4,712.73

Value

$2.8K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

58%

40372-29160 (69532)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,803.99

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$70.15

Record

50%

24100-23732 (47832)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$587.97

Value

$606.74

PnL

+$18.76

Record

50%

11935-12084 (24019)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$729.87

Value

$576.61

PnL

-$153.26

Record

58%

1599-1172 (2771)

Both legs:

No$360.2472¢+$2.53

Yes$369.6447.5¢-$155.8

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$329.12

Value

$250.62

PnL

-$78.5

Record

59%

44240-30609 (74849)

Both legs:

No$142.3369.6¢+$11.04

Yes$186.7948¢-$89.55

SnakeBallCTR

Yes

Invested

$250.05

Value

$248.2

PnL

-$1.85

Record

50%

32578-32115 (64693)

foooool

Invested

$216.97

Value

$199.77

PnL

-$17.2

Record

50%

10445-10309 (20754)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76

Value

$50

PnL

-$26

Record

51%

1195-1129 (2324)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.44

Value

$13.32

PnL

+$0.88

Record

60%

9075-5994 (15069)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$15.55

Value

$12.5

PnL

-$3.05

Record

54%

2551-2184 (4735)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.81

Value

$6.01

PnL

-$0.8

Record

54%

5999-5086 (11085)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.