Beijing Guoan leading at halftime?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.6K
-$8.07
77.2¢ → 100¢
+29% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 64¢ | $491.78 | $730.55 | -$11.15 | 58% 40375-29164 (69539) |
 RN1 | Noavg 90.7¢ | $694.04 | $726.58 | +$32.54 | 54% 55313-47351 (102664) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 75.3¢ | $44.04 | $55.18 | +$11.14 | 54% 2554-2186 (4740) |
0X 0xbf2342fds234423dCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $50 | $35.71 | -$14.29 | 51% 626-593 (1219) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.1¢ | $40.82 | $14.51 | -$26.31 | 59% 44243-30611 (74854) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$491.78
Value
$730.55
PnL
-$11.15
Record
58%
40375-29164 (69539)
RN1Invested
$694.04
Value
$726.58
PnL
+$32.54
Record
54%
55313-47351 (102664)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$44.04
Value
$55.18
PnL
+$11.14
Record
54%
2554-2186 (4740)
Invested
$50
Value
$35.71
PnL
-$14.29
Record
51%
626-593 (1219)
Invested
$40.82
Value
$14.51
PnL
-$26.31
Record
59%
44243-30611 (74854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.