Will Beijing Guoan vs. Jeonbuk FC end in a draw?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 75¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$1.5K
$35.94
73.2¢ → 75¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 73¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | +$33 | 58% 40372-29160 (69532) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 74¢ | $143.62 | $145.56 | +$1.94 | 50% 24100-23732 (47832) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Noavg 74¢ | $130.61 | $130.61 | +$0 | 53% 5466-4812 (10278) |
KL kleomarcusCTR | Yesavg 25¢ | $200 | $51 | +$1 | 63% 1646-987 (2633) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,204.5
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$33
Record
58%
40372-29160 (69532)
Invested
$143.62
Value
$145.56
PnL
+$1.94
Record
50%
24100-23732 (47832)
Invested
$130.61
Value
$130.61
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5466-4812 (10278)
Invested
$200
Value
$51
PnL
+$1
Record
63%
1646-987 (2633)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.