Will Beijing Guoan win on 2026-10-27?

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 71¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 27

Yes29¢No71¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

-$159.04

Smart Money Entry

55.4¢ → 71¢

+28% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes29%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares7,644

Combined PnL-$11.77

No7 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares6,886

Combined PnL-$147.27

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 55.5¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$47.57	50% 24100-23732 (47832)
└ No leg	Noavg 55.5¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$47.57
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 47¢	$851.13	$851.13	-$0
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Yesavg 46¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$19.89	49% 127-134 (261)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 56.8¢	$3.2K	$1.7K	-$130.24	58% 40372-29160 (69532)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 53.5¢	$802	$802.5	+$0.5	51% 1195-1129 (2324)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 42.3¢	$564.12	$626.61	+$62.49	59% 44240-30609 (74849)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 52.8¢	$551.63	$553.54	+$1.91	49% 18385-18813 (37198)
LZ lzh1CTR	Yesavg 46¢	$465.35	$470.41	+$5.06	43% 448-597 (1045)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 40¢	$455.86	$340.87	-$114.99	54% 55311-47349 (102660)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 57¢	$363.09	$337.61	-$15.93	53% 5466-4812 (10278)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 54¢	$256.86	$252.17	-$4.69	50% 11935-12084 (24019)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$82.08	$98.92	+$15.78	52% 5809-5432 (11241)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 69¢	$30.3	$31.18	+$0.88	60% 9075-5994 (15069)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$7.05	$7.05	-$0	54% 2551-2184 (4735)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 65¢	$3.25	$3.55	+$0.3	54% 5999-5086 (11085)
oieshfn345CTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$0.82	$0.81	-$0.01	58% 1599-1172 (2771)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$1,898.81

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$47.57

Record

50%

24100-23732 (47832)

Both legs:

No$1,047.6855.5¢-$47.57

Yes$851.1347¢-$0

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,830.12

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$19.89

Record

49%

127-134 (261)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$3,228.66

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$130.24

Record

58%

40372-29160 (69532)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$802

Value

$802.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

51%

1195-1129 (2324)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$564.12

Value

$626.61

PnL

+$62.49

Record

59%

44240-30609 (74849)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$551.63

Value

$553.54

PnL

+$1.91

Record

49%

18385-18813 (37198)

lzh1CTR

Yes

Invested

$465.35

Value

$470.41

PnL

+$5.06

Record

43%

448-597 (1045)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$455.86

Value

$340.87

PnL

-$114.99

Record

54%

55311-47349 (102660)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$363.09

Value

$337.61

PnL

-$15.93

Record

53%

5466-4812 (10278)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$256.86

Value

$252.17

PnL

-$4.69

Record

50%

11935-12084 (24019)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.08

Value

$98.92

PnL

+$15.78

Record

52%

5809-5432 (11241)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$30.3

Value

$31.18

PnL

+$0.88

Record

60%

9075-5994 (15069)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.05

Value

$7.05

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

2551-2184 (4735)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.55

PnL

+$0.3

Record

54%

5999-5086 (11085)

oieshfn345CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.82

Value

$0.81

PnL

-$0.01

Record

58%

1599-1172 (2771)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.