Will Al Nassr Club win on 2026-10-26?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 74¢ · $472 held · ended Oct 26

Yes74¢No26¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$471.6

Combined PnL

-$23.64

Smart Money Entry

78.1¢ → 74¢

-5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes74%

No26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$460.52

Total Shares633

Combined PnL-$25.22

No1 trader

Total Value$11.09

Total Shares40

Combined PnL+$1.58

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KL kleomarcus	Yesavg 80¢	$304	$259.84	-$21.65	62% 1653-992 (2645)
poshposh	Yesavg 73.6¢	$119.86	$118.36	+$1.56	60% 9276-6223 (15499)
LR lryyy<$100	Yesavg 76¢	$51.09	$49.76	-$1.33	—
nigiri99<$100	Yesavg 82.6¢	$36.36	$32.56	-$3.8	—
PL PLACEYOURBETS123CTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$8.71	$11.09	+$1.58	59% 51-36 (87)

kleomarcus

Yes

Invested

$304

Value

$259.84

PnL

-$21.65

Record

62%

1653-992 (2645)

poshposh

Yes

Invested

$119.86

Value

$118.36

PnL

+$1.56

Record

60%

9276-6223 (15499)

lryyy<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.09

Value

$49.76

PnL

-$1.33

Record

—

nigiri99<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.36

Value

$32.56

PnL

-$3.8

Record

—

PLACEYOURBETS123CTR<$100

Invested

$8.71

Value

$11.09

PnL

+$1.58

Record

59%

51-36 (87)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.