Will The Cong - Viettel FC win on 2026-10-28?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 99¢ · $680 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$679.5
-$26.3
80¢ → 99.2¢
+24% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 80¢ | $291.15 | $276.74 | -$14.41 | 50% 32771-32329 (65100) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 79.2¢ | $211.58 | $203.03 | -$8.55 | 50% 12108-12315 (24423) |
LO lonmi2511 | Noavg 79¢ | $128.99 | $124.11 | -$4.89 | 63% 1075-624 (1699) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 87.7¢ | $45.56 | $44.68 | -$0.88 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 78.1¢ | $19.85 | $19.32 | -$0.53 | 52% 5871-5504 (11375) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $7.48 | $10.56 | +$3.08 | 59% 44604-31003 (75607) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $1.19 | $1.06 | -$0.13 | 53% 3046-2708 (5754) |
Invested
$291.15
Value
$276.74
PnL
-$14.41
Record
50%
32771-32329 (65100)
Invested
$211.58
Value
$203.03
PnL
-$8.55
Record
50%
12108-12315 (24423)
Invested
$128.99
Value
$124.11
PnL
-$4.89
Record
63%
1075-624 (1699)
Invested
$45.56
Value
$44.68
PnL
-$0.88
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$19.85
Value
$19.32
PnL
-$0.53
Record
52%
5871-5504 (11375)
Invested
$7.48
Value
$10.56
PnL
+$3.08
Record
59%
44604-31003 (75607)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.19
Value
$1.06
PnL
-$0.13
Record
53%
3046-2708 (5754)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.