Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
The Cong - Viettel FC vs. FC Seoul: O/U 2.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 80%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
-$57.92
47.9¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 36.8¢ | $1.7K | $1.3K | -$386.66 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 51.1¢ | $576.8 | $1.0K | +$433.57 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 36.8¢ | $1.1K | $326.97 | -$820.24 | |
GT gt7238CTR | Underavg 49¢ | $438.34 | $407.03 | -$31.31 | 45% 590-718 (1308) |
SA Saber-greed | Overavg 70¢ | $306.11 | $303.92 | -$2.19 | 59% 2526-1757 (4283) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 46.2¢ | $77.19 | $52.64 | -$24.55 | 50% 12108-12315 (24423) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 31.7¢ | $14.09 | $14.46 | +$0.37 | 59% 44604-31003 (75607) |
FF ff3364CTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $4.46 | $4.23 | -$0.23 | 50% 785-785 (1570) |
Invested
$1,724.01
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$386.66
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Both legs:
Invested
$438.34
Value
$407.03
PnL
-$31.31
Record
45%
590-718 (1308)
Invested
$306.11
Value
$303.92
PnL
-$2.19
Record
59%
2526-1757 (4283)
Invested
$77.19
Value
$52.64
PnL
-$24.55
Record
50%
12108-12315 (24423)
Invested
$14.09
Value
$14.46
PnL
+$0.37
Record
59%
44604-31003 (75607)
Invested
$4.46
Value
$4.23
PnL
-$0.23
Record
50%
785-785 (1570)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.