Will FC Seoul win on 2026-10-28?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 66¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 28

Yes66¢No34¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$85.37

Smart Money Entry

64.2¢ → 65.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes66%

No35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,836

Combined PnL-$77.87

No1 trader

Total Value$172.5

Total Shares500

Combined PnL-$7.5

Yes — 83%No — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justbusiness1	Yesavg 65.1¢	$657.6	$661.69	+$4.09	53% 254-225 (479)
LU LuckyLoo	Yesavg 63.7¢	$402.81	$331.76	-$71.05	50% 12018-12196 (24214)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Noavg 36¢	$180	$172.5	-$7.5	47% 2383-2656 (5039)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 62¢	$172.77	$162.24	-$10.53	59% 44384-30773 (75157)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$20.95	$20.74	-$0.2	53% 5483-4829 (10312)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 57.6¢	$3.57	$3.39	-$0.18	54% 2744-2368 (5112)

justbusiness1

Yes

Invested

$657.6

Value

$661.69

PnL

+$4.09

Record

53%

254-225 (479)

LuckyLoo

Yes

Invested

$402.81

Value

$331.76

PnL

-$71.05

Record

50%

12018-12196 (24214)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Invested

$180

Value

$172.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

47%

2383-2656 (5039)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$172.77

Value

$162.24

PnL

-$10.53

Record

59%

44384-30773 (75157)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.95

Value

$20.74

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

5483-4829 (10312)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.57

Value

$3.39

PnL

-$0.18

Record

54%

2744-2368 (5112)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.