BG Tampines Rovers vs. PKR Svay Rieng: O/U 4.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 86¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 80%
1 arb excluded
$3.7K
-$342.58
62.4¢ → 86¢
+38% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 70.4¢ | $1.9K | $1.6K | -$347.77 | 50% 24686-24362 (49048) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Overavg 56.1¢ | $1.0K | $954.21 | -$64.77 | 49% 18813-19212 (38025) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Underavg 44.9¢ | $656.05 | $719.67 | +$63.62 | 49% 12392-12709 (25101) |
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Overavg 77¢ | $502.4 | $425.33 | -$77.08 | 50% 33056-32624 (65680) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 46¢ | $235.98 | $243.67 | +$7.69 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 77¢ | $266.42 | $181.65 | -$84.77 | |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Overavg 34.3¢ | $8.66 | $13.26 | +$4.6 | 59% 45090-31481 (76571) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 25¢ | $1.59 | $3.34 | +$1.75 | 52% 3684-3346 (7030) |
Invested
$1,938.69
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$347.77
Record
50%
24686-24362 (49048)
Invested
$1,018.98
Value
$954.21
PnL
-$64.77
Record
49%
18813-19212 (38025)
Invested
$656.05
Value
$719.67
PnL
+$63.62
Record
49%
12392-12709 (25101)
Invested
$502.4
Value
$425.33
PnL
-$77.08
Record
50%
33056-32624 (65680)
Both legs:
Invested
$8.66
Value
$13.26
PnL
+$4.6
Record
59%
45090-31481 (76571)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.59
Value
$3.34
PnL
+$1.75
Record
52%
3684-3346 (7030)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.