Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (66%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will BG Tampines Rovers win on 2026-10-29?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 35¢ · $269 held · ends Oct 29

Yes35¢No65¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$268.59

Combined PnL

$12.23

Smart Money Entry

32.3¢ → 34.5¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$207.31

Total Shares588

Combined PnL+$17.45

No2 traders

Total Value$61.28

Total Shares95

Combined PnL-$5.22

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Yesavg 31¢	$89.13	$102.06	+$12.94	53% 5532-4882 (10414)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 33.5¢	$92.92	$97.08	+$4.17	50% 24602-24271 (48873)
BA Bayupati<$100	Noavg 70¢	$65.52	$60.37	-$5.15	51% 209-199 (408)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$7.82	$8.17	+$0.34	49% 12328-12593 (24921)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 70¢	$0.98	$0.9	-$0.08	58% 41092-29767 (70859)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Yes

Invested

$89.13

Value

$102.06

PnL

+$12.94

Record

53%

5532-4882 (10414)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$92.92

Value

$97.08

PnL

+$4.17

Record

50%

24602-24271 (48873)

Bayupati<$100

Invested

$65.52

Value

$60.37

PnL

-$5.15

Record

51%

209-199 (408)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.82

Value

$8.17

PnL

+$0.34

Record

49%

12328-12593 (24921)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$0.98

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$0.08

Record

58%

41092-29767 (70859)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 35%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.6%

34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$172.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

272.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.