Will PKR Svay Rieng win on 2026-10-29?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 56¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$4.0K
-$4.24
53¢ → 56.5¢
+7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Noavg 53¢ | $2.1K | $2.4K | +$296.8 | 49% 18595-19019 (37614) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Yesavg 47¢ | $1.9K | $1.6K | -$300 | 53% 5499-4842 (10341) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $13.97 | $12.54 | -$1.43 | 59% 44606-31003 (75609) |
SA Saber-greed<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $7.96 | $8.75 | +$0.8 | 59% 2526-1757 (4283) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $5.04 | $4.63 | -$0.41 | 50% 12108-12317 (24425) |
Invested
$2,096.97
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$296.8
Record
49%
18595-19019 (37614)
Invested
$1,880
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$300
Record
53%
5499-4842 (10341)
Invested
$13.97
Value
$12.54
PnL
-$1.43
Record
59%
44606-31003 (75609)
Invested
$7.96
Value
$8.75
PnL
+$0.8
Record
59%
2526-1757 (4283)
Invested
$5.04
Value
$4.63
PnL
-$0.41
Record
50%
12108-12317 (24425)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.