Tai Po FC vs. BG Pathum United: O/U 4.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 53¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$1.3K
-$483.28
80.8¢ → 53¢
-34% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 81.9¢ | $1.6K | $1.1K | -$575.81 | 50% 24686-24362 (49048) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 17.3¢ | $50.14 | $149.35 | +$99.21 | 59% 45093-31481 (76574) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $43.33 | $44.17 | +$0.83 | 49% 12393-12710 (25103) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Underavg 85¢ | $22.05 | $12.58 | -$9.47 | 49% 18814-19213 (38027) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 19¢ | $1.14 | $3.09 | +$1.95 | 52% 3686-3349 (7035) |
Invested
$1,630.46
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$575.81
Record
50%
24686-24362 (49048)
Invested
$50.14
Value
$149.35
PnL
+$99.21
Record
59%
45093-31481 (76574)
Invested
$43.33
Value
$44.17
PnL
+$0.83
Record
49%
12393-12710 (25103)
Invested
$22.05
Value
$12.58
PnL
-$9.47
Record
49%
18814-19213 (38027)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.14
Value
$3.09
PnL
+$1.95
Record
52%
3686-3349 (7035)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.