Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold BG Pathum United, while the market favors Tai Po FC (54%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: BG Pathum United (-2.5)
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold BG Pathum United (100%) · BG Pathum United at 46¢ · $238 held · ended Oct 29
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Neutral
BG Pathum United
3
BG Pathum United 100%
$238.42
-$150.72
74¢ → 46¢
-38% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralBG Pathum United at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Tai Po FC 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | BG Pathum Unitedavg 75.6¢ | $366.43 | $222.82 | -$143.61 | 50% 24686-24362 (49048) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | BG Pathum Unitedavg 25¢ | $4.93 | $9.07 | -$1.58 | 52% 3688-3350 (7038) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | BG Pathum Unitedavg 85¢ | $12.07 | $6.53 | -$5.54 | 59% 45094-31483 (76577) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.