Spread: BG Pathum United (-1.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Tai Po FC (50%) · Tai Po FC at 71¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29

BG Pathum United29¢Tai Po FC71¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tai Po FC

Consensus Traders

Tai Po FC 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$138.57

Smart Money Entry

58.4¢ → 71¢

+22% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralTai Po FC at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tai Po FC

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

BG Pathum United29%

Tai Po FC71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tai Po FC2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,754

Combined PnL+$139.7

BG Pathum United2 traders

Total Value$15.88

Total Shares39

Combined PnL-$1.13

Tai Po FC — 50%BG Pathum United — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Tai Po FCavg 57.8¢	$976.6	$982.38	+$5.78	59% 45090-31481 (76571)
└ Tai Po FC leg	Tai Po FCavg 57.8¢	$597.13	$630.01	+$32.88
└ BG Pathum United leg	BG Pathum Unitedavg 42¢	$379.47	$352.37	-$27.11
GO GoalLineGhost	Tai Po FCavg 58.8¢	$629.78	$760.59	+$130.81	50% 24686-24362 (49048)
OM omnibus-076daa	Tai Po FCavg 57.7¢	$393.98	$402.88	+$8.89	49% 18813-19212 (38025)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100	BG Pathum Unitedavg 44¢	$15.71	$14.64	-$1.07	53% 5542-4910 (10452)
HRTradingCTR<$100	BG Pathum Unitedavg 43¢	$1.3	$1.24	-$0.06	52% 3684-3346 (7030)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Tai Po FC

Invested

$976.6

Value

$982.38

PnL

+$5.78

Record

59%

45090-31481 (76571)

Both legs:

Tai Po FC$597.1357.8¢+$32.88

BG Pathum United$379.4742¢-$27.11

GoalLineGhost

Tai Po FC

Invested

$629.78

Value

$760.59

PnL

+$130.81

Record

50%

24686-24362 (49048)

omnibus-076daa

Tai Po FC

Invested

$393.98

Value

$402.88

PnL

+$8.89

Record

49%

18813-19212 (38025)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100

BG Pathum United

Invested

$15.71

Value

$14.64

PnL

-$1.07

Record

53%

5542-4910 (10452)

HRTradingCTR<$100

BG Pathum United

Invested

$1.3

Value

$1.24

PnL

-$0.06

Record

52%

3684-3346 (7030)

Research grade

NeutralTai Po FC at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Tai Po FC

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tai Po FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.