Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will BG Pathum United win on 2026-10-29?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 0.5¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 50%
$1.9K
-$848.49
38.5¢ → 0.5¢
-99% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 40¢ | $1.9K | $1.1K | -$874.06 | 50% 24686-24362 (49048) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 52¢ | $381.19 | $483.82 | +$102.63 | 49% 18814-19213 (38027) |
SA Saber-greed | Yesavg 76¢ | $333.21 | $326.64 | -$6.58 | 59% 2542-1763 (4305) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $29.22 | $19.79 | -$9.43 | 49% 12393-12710 (25103) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Noavg 22.4¢ | $32.95 | $19.12 | -$13.82 | 54% 6133-5208 (11341) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Yesavg 91¢ | $15.95 | $16.04 | +$0.09 | 76% 3975-1256 (5231) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 66.9¢ | $5.86 | $6.5 | +$0.64 | 52% 3686-3349 (7035) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 24.1¢ | $50.02 | $2.07 | -$47.94 | 59% 45093-31481 (76574) |
Invested
$1,942.21
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$874.06
Record
50%
24686-24362 (49048)
Invested
$381.19
Value
$483.82
PnL
+$102.63
Record
49%
18814-19213 (38027)
Invested
$333.21
Value
$326.64
PnL
-$6.58
Record
59%
2542-1763 (4305)
Invested
$29.22
Value
$19.79
PnL
-$9.43
Record
49%
12393-12710 (25103)
Invested
$32.95
Value
$19.12
PnL
-$13.82
Record
54%
6133-5208 (11341)
Invested
$15.95
Value
$16.04
PnL
+$0.09
Record
76%
3975-1256 (5231)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.86
Value
$6.5
PnL
+$0.64
Record
52%
3686-3349 (7035)
Invested
$50.02
Value
$2.07
PnL
-$47.94
Record
59%
45093-31481 (76574)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.