Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Machida Zelvia: O/U 2.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 54¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 43%
$4.3K
-$184.06
48.7¢ → 53.5¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME metski29 | Underavg 50.1¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$24.35 | 45% 300-374 (674) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $1.7K | $1.5K | -$136.32 | 50% 24686-24362 (49048) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Overavg 50¢ | $401.13 | $389.16 | -$11.97 | 50% 33056-32625 (65681) |
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 41.2¢ | $362.27 | $351.31 | -$10.96 | 49% 12393-12710 (25103) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $32.99 | $32.27 | -$0.72 | 49% 18814-19213 (38027) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $25.66 | $26.85 | +$1.19 | 52% 3686-3349 (7035) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Overavg 47.4¢ | $18.03 | $17.1 | -$0.93 | 59% 45093-31481 (76574) |
Invested
$1,980
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$24.35
Record
45%
300-374 (674)
Invested
$1,676.49
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$136.32
Record
50%
24686-24362 (49048)
Invested
$401.13
Value
$389.16
PnL
-$11.97
Record
50%
33056-32625 (65681)
Invested
$362.27
Value
$351.31
PnL
-$10.96
Record
49%
12393-12710 (25103)
Invested
$32.99
Value
$32.27
PnL
-$0.72
Record
49%
18814-19213 (38027)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$25.66
Value
$26.85
PnL
+$1.19
Record
52%
3686-3349 (7035)
Invested
$18.03
Value
$17.1
PnL
-$0.93
Record
59%
45093-31481 (76574)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.