Will Machida Zelvia win on 2026-10-29?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 58¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 29

Yes58¢No42¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.2K

Combined PnL

$161.72

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 58¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 58%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes58%

No42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares4,015

Combined PnL+$82.4

No3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,034

Combined PnL+$79.32

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Yesavg 60¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$84.29	53% 5542-4910 (10452)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 61.2¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$2.51	50% 24686-24362 (49048)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 61.2¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$80.64
└ No leg	Noavg 36.4¢	$552.56	$630.68	+$78.12
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542ARB<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$102.09	47% 2442-2739 (5181)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 59¢	$757.21	$789.3	+$32.09
└ No leg	Noavg 35¢	$700	$770	+$70
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 38.8¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$84.09	59% 45090-31481 (76571)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 35.7¢	$99.58	$98.91	-$0.67	51% 5921-5596 (11517)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 39.7¢	$38.58	$34.48	-$4.1	49% 12392-12709 (25101)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$7.32	$5.52	-$1.8	49% 18813-19212 (38025)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$1.47	$1.38	-$0.09	52% 3684-3346 (7030)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Yes

Invested

$2,739.99

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$84.29

Record

53%

5542-4910 (10452)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,396.42

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$2.51

Record

50%

24686-24362 (49048)

Both legs:

Yes$1,843.8561.2¢-$80.64

No$552.5636.4¢+$78.12

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,457.21

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$102.09

Record

47%

2442-2739 (5181)

Both legs:

Yes$757.2159¢+$32.09

No$70035¢+$70

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$1,207.95

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$84.09

Record

59%

45090-31481 (76571)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$99.58

Value

$98.91

PnL

-$0.67

Record

51%

5921-5596 (11517)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$38.58

Value

$34.48

PnL

-$4.1

Record

49%

12392-12709 (25101)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.32

Value

$5.52

PnL

-$1.8

Record

49%

18813-19212 (38025)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.47

Value

$1.38

PnL

-$0.09

Record

52%

3684-3346 (7030)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 58%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.2%

58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$66.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.