Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Machida Zelvia end in a draw?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 83¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 29

Yes18¢No82¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$4.74

Smart Money Entry

77.2¢ → 82.5¢

+7% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares6,531

Combined PnL+$2.25

Yes1 trader

Total Value$42.23

Total Shares248

Combined PnL+$2.48

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 77¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	-$26.76	50% 2481-2470 (4951)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 76.9¢	$488.17	$517.25	+$29.08	58% 41209-29876 (71085)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 82¢	$216.89	$219.54	+$2.65	50% 33056-32625 (65681)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 78.1¢	$165.46	$162.88	-$2.58	59% 45093-31481 (76574)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 77¢	$50.82	$50.49	-$0.33	58% 28254-20837 (49091)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$39.75	$42.23	+$2.48	49% 12393-12710 (25103)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 75.6¢	$38.26	$38.22	-$0.03	50% 24686-24362 (49048)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	Noavg 76¢	$36.29	$36.53	+$0.24	53% 5543-4910 (10453)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 77¢	$1.54	$1.53	-$0.01	52% 3686-3349 (7035)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$4,120.53

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$26.76

Record

50%

2481-2470 (4951)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$488.17

Value

$517.25

PnL

+$29.08

Record

58%

41209-29876 (71085)

SnakeBall

Invested

$216.89

Value

$219.54

PnL

+$2.65

Record

50%

33056-32625 (65681)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$165.46

Value

$162.88

PnL

-$2.58

Record

59%

45093-31481 (76574)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$50.82

Value

$50.49

PnL

-$0.33

Record

58%

28254-20837 (49091)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.75

Value

$42.23

PnL

+$2.48

Record

49%

12393-12710 (25103)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$38.26

Value

$38.22

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

24686-24362 (49048)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

Invested

$36.29

Value

$36.53

PnL

+$0.24

Record

53%

5543-4910 (10453)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$1.54

Value

$1.53

PnL

-$0.01

Record

52%

3686-3349 (7035)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.