Will Phnom Penh Crown FC win on 2026-10-29?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 56¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 50%
2 arb excluded
$3.8K
-$36.61
53.7¢ → 55.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 46.6¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | -$42.07 | 50% 24686-24362 (49048) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 46.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$57.31 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 54.3¢ | $684.91 | $700.15 | +$15.24 | |
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 53.7¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$53.51 | 49% 18813-19212 (38025) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Yesavg 51.4¢ | $279.01 | $244.44 | -$34.57 | 59% 45090-31481 (76571) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 51.4¢ | $192.42 | $129.06 | -$63.36 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 49.2¢ | $86.59 | $115.38 | +$28.79 | |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Noavg 46.4¢ | $218.22 | $227.95 | +$9.73 | 58% 28254-20836 (49090) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Noavg 47.3¢ | $158.32 | $162.3 | +$3.99 | 49% 12392-12709 (25101) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $11.64 | $11.74 | +$0.11 | 50% 33056-32624 (65680) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $8.82 | $9.5 | +$0.46 | 52% 3684-3346 (7030) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $6.17 | $8.78 | +$2.61 | 51% 5921-5596 (11517) |
Invested
$1,952.05
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$42.07
Record
50%
24686-24362 (49048)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,280.12
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$53.51
Record
49%
18813-19212 (38025)
Invested
$279.01
Value
$244.44
PnL
-$34.57
Record
59%
45090-31481 (76571)
Both legs:
Invested
$218.22
Value
$227.95
PnL
+$9.73
Record
58%
28254-20836 (49090)
Invested
$158.32
Value
$162.3
PnL
+$3.99
Record
49%
12392-12709 (25101)
Invested
$11.64
Value
$11.74
PnL
+$0.11
Record
50%
33056-32624 (65680)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$8.82
Value
$9.5
PnL
+$0.46
Record
52%
3684-3346 (7030)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$6.17
Value
$8.78
PnL
+$2.61
Record
51%
5921-5596 (11517)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.