Will Kitchee win on 2026-10-29?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 77¢ · $727 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$726.53
$0.48
75.9¢ → 76.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 75.8¢ | $312.22 | $313.09 | +$0.87 | 50% 24686-24362 (49048) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 76¢ | $187.15 | $187.15 | +$0 | 59% 45090-31481 (76571) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 76¢ | $184.11 | $184.11 | +$0 | 49% 12392-12709 (25101) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 76.8¢ | $37.63 | $37.24 | -$0.39 | 50% 33056-32624 (65680) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $4.94 | $4.94 | +$0 | 52% 3684-3346 (7030) |
Invested
$312.22
Value
$313.09
PnL
+$0.87
Record
50%
24686-24362 (49048)
Invested
$187.15
Value
$187.15
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
45090-31481 (76571)
Invested
$184.11
Value
$184.11
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
12392-12709 (25101)
Invested
$37.63
Value
$37.24
PnL
-$0.39
Record
50%
33056-32624 (65680)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.94
Value
$4.94
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
3684-3346 (7030)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.