Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-10-28?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 80¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$1.4K
$58.81
74.4¢ → 79.5¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 74.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$67.32 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 72.3¢ | $218.48 | $213.05 | -$5.43 | 59% 44601-31003 (75604) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $40.25 | $37.11 | -$3.14 | 53% 5498-4842 (10340) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 69.8¢ | $5.93 | $5.99 | +$0.06 | 53% 3042-2707 (5749) |
Invested
$1,088.29
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$67.32
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Invested
$218.48
Value
$213.05
PnL
-$5.43
Record
59%
44601-31003 (75604)
Invested
$40.25
Value
$37.11
PnL
-$3.14
Record
53%
5498-4842 (10340)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.93
Value
$5.99
PnL
+$0.06
Record
53%
3042-2707 (5749)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.