Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (57%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Persib Bandung vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 2.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 43¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$2.7K
-$136.41
47.5¢ → 43¢
-9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 46.5¢ | $1.1K | $957.17 | -$177.67 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 48¢ | $878.2 | $878.52 | +$0.32 | 59% 44604-31003 (75607) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR | Overavg 49¢ | $670.64 | $711.7 | +$41.06 | 50% 2460-2452 (4912) |
 us391 | Underavg 48¢ | $112.61 | $112.61 | -$0 | 51% 1646-1580 (3226) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $1.81 | $1.69 | -$0.12 | 53% 3046-2708 (5754) |
Invested
$1,134.84
Value
$957.17
PnL
-$177.67
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Invested
$878.2
Value
$878.52
PnL
+$0.32
Record
59%
44604-31003 (75607)
Invested
$670.64
Value
$711.7
PnL
+$41.06
Record
50%
2460-2452 (4912)
us391Invested
$112.61
Value
$112.61
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
1646-1580 (3226)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.81
Value
$1.69
PnL
-$0.12
Record
53%
3046-2708 (5754)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.