Will Persib Bandung win on 2026-10-28?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 58¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 28

Yes42¢No58¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$53.68

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 58¢

-3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 58%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,559

Combined PnL-$13.44

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,810

Combined PnL+$67.13

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 60¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$12.42	53% 5469-4814 (10283)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 40.1¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$67.07	49% 18399-18822 (37221)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 41.1¢	$144.68	$146.65	+$1.96	59% 44263-30624 (74887)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 41.1¢	$85.52	$87.49	+$1.96
└ No leg	Noavg 58¢	$59.16	$59.16	+$0
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 59.4¢	$44.23	$43.21	-$1.02	50% 11942-12092 (24034)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 40.5¢	$2.27	$2.38	+$0.05	54% 2570-2206 (4776)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$1,490.91

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$12.42

Record

53%

5469-4814 (10283)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,124.65

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$67.07

Record

49%

18399-18822 (37221)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$144.68

Value

$146.65

PnL

+$1.96

Record

59%

44263-30624 (74887)

Both legs:

Yes$85.5241.1¢+$1.96

No$59.1658¢+$0

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$44.23

Value

$43.21

PnL

-$1.02

Record

50%

11942-12092 (24034)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.27

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

2570-2206 (4776)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 58%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.2%

58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$66.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.