Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
PFC Nasaf vs. Kuwait SC: O/U 0.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $350 held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Under
4
Under 75%
$350.02
-$929.05
16.8¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 16.9¢ | $992.24 | $206.05 | -$786.19 | 59% 44606-31003 (75609) |
VA Vampiro1 | Overavg 96.3¢ | $108.56 | $91.88 | -$16.68 | 77% 3109-954 (4063) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Underavg 17¢ | $135.83 | $51.94 | -$83.9 | 50% 12108-12317 (24425) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 15.8¢ | $42.42 | $0.13 | -$42.29 | 53% 3047-2709 (5756) |
Invested
$992.24
Value
$206.05
PnL
-$786.19
Record
59%
44606-31003 (75609)
Invested
$108.56
Value
$91.88
PnL
-$16.68
Record
77%
3109-954 (4063)
Invested
$135.83
Value
$51.94
PnL
-$83.9
Record
50%
12108-12317 (24425)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$42.42
Value
$0.13
PnL
-$42.29
Record
53%
3047-2709 (5756)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.