Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (91%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will PFC Nasaf win on 2026-10-28?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 9.5¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 50%
$1.1K
-$377.54
48¢ → 9.5¢
-80% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 10%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Yesavg 51.8¢ | $652.05 | $628.92 | -$23.13 | 49% 18595-19019 (37614) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 54.6¢ | $213.11 | $222.65 | +$9.54 | 59% 44606-31003 (75609) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Yesavg 45.7¢ | $245.58 | $88.58 | -$156.99 | 50% 12108-12317 (24425) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 82.3¢ | $68.31 | $63.88 | -$4.42 | 50% 32772-32329 (65101) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 42.5¢ | $272.63 | $60.88 | -$211.75 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $18.76 | $27.97 | +$9.21 | 53% 3047-2709 (5756) |
Invested
$652.05
Value
$628.92
PnL
-$23.13
Record
49%
18595-19019 (37614)
Invested
$213.11
Value
$222.65
PnL
+$9.54
Record
59%
44606-31003 (75609)
Invested
$245.58
Value
$88.58
PnL
-$156.99
Record
50%
12108-12317 (24425)
Invested
$68.31
Value
$63.88
PnL
-$4.42
Record
50%
32772-32329 (65101)
Invested
$272.63
Value
$60.88
PnL
-$211.75
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$18.76
Value
$27.97
PnL
+$9.21
Record
53%
3047-2709 (5756)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.