Will Kuwait SC win on 2026-10-28?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 72¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 28

Yes72¢No28¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$251.81

Smart Money Entry

23.3¢ → 72¢

+209% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes72%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$442.05

Total Shares812

Combined PnL+$252.7

No3 traders

Total Value$30.96

Total Shares46

Combined PnL-$0.89

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 76¢	$810.59	$990.15	+$179.56	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.1¢	$327.21	$691.3	+$364.1
└ No leg	Noavg 76¢	$483.38	$298.85	-$184.53
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 23.1¢	$185.55	$437.2	+$251.65	59% 44606-31003 (75609)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$14.74	$13.58	-$1.16	50% 12108-12317 (24425)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Noavg 76¢	$13.38	$13.52	+$0.13	63% 1075-624 (1699)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$3.8	$4.85	+$1.05	54% 6046-5125 (11171)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 76¢	$3.72	$3.86	+$0.14	53% 3047-2709 (5756)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$810.59

Value

$990.15

PnL

+$179.56

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

Both legs:

Yes$327.2125.1¢+$364.1

No$483.3876¢-$184.53

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$185.55

Value

$437.2

PnL

+$251.65

Record

59%

44606-31003 (75609)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$14.74

Value

$13.58

PnL

-$1.16

Record

50%

12108-12317 (24425)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Invested

$13.38

Value

$13.52

PnL

+$0.13

Record

63%

1075-624 (1699)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.8

Value

$4.85

PnL

+$1.05

Record

54%

6046-5125 (11171)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$3.72

Value

$3.86

PnL

+$0.14

Record

53%

3047-2709 (5756)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.