Will Al Jazira (UAE) win on 2026-10-28?
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 44%
$3.8K
-$142.83
56.2¢ → 100¢
+78% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 50¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$195.42 | 49% 18605-19035 (37640) |
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 67.3¢ | $935.44 | $1.2K | +$239.38 | 59% 44610-31007 (75617) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 36.8¢ | $1.1K | $652.92 | -$465.59 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Noavg 50¢ | $644.65 | $554.95 | -$89.7 | 50% 32772-32330 (65102) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Noavg 47.8¢ | $73.3 | $39.45 | -$33.85 | 54% 6046-5125 (11171) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 61.2¢ | $15.98 | $20.23 | +$4.24 | 53% 3056-2718 (5774) |
RO Rocko33CTR<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $12.62 | $15.25 | +$2.63 | 64% 993-564 (1557) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Yesavg 70.3¢ | $9.54 | $13.48 | +$3.94 | 50% 12109-12317 (24426) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Noavg 30.1¢ | $1.92 | $2.61 | +$0.69 | 63% 1075-624 (1699) |
Invested
$1,087.7
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$195.42
Record
49%
18605-19035 (37640)
Invested
$935.44
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$239.38
Record
59%
44610-31007 (75617)
Invested
$1,118.51
Value
$652.92
PnL
-$465.59
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Invested
$644.65
Value
$554.95
PnL
-$89.7
Record
50%
32772-32330 (65102)
Invested
$73.3
Value
$39.45
PnL
-$33.85
Record
54%
6046-5125 (11171)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$15.98
Value
$20.23
PnL
+$4.24
Record
53%
3056-2718 (5774)
Invested
$12.62
Value
$15.25
PnL
+$2.63
Record
64%
993-564 (1557)
Invested
$9.54
Value
$13.48
PnL
+$3.94
Record
50%
12109-12317 (24426)
Invested
$1.92
Value
$2.61
PnL
+$0.69
Record
63%
1075-624 (1699)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.