Will Al Jazira (UAE) vs. Al-Muharraq SC end in a draw?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 99¢ · $56 held · ended Oct 28

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$55.91

Combined PnL

$1.37

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$53.43

Total Shares71

Combined PnL+$1.37

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.48

Total Shares10

Combined PnL+$0

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 73¢	$38.74	$39.81	+$1.06	50% 12109-12317 (24426)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 73.8¢	$9.72	$9.88	+$0.16	50% 32772-32330 (65102)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 72¢	$3.6	$3.75	+$0.15	54% 6046-5125 (11171)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$2.48	$2.48	+$0	53% 3056-2718 (5774)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$38.74

Value

$39.81

PnL

+$1.06

Record

50%

12109-12317 (24426)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$9.72

Value

$9.88

PnL

+$0.16

Record

50%

32772-32330 (65102)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.75

PnL

+$0.15

Record

54%

6046-5125 (11171)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.48

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

3056-2718 (5774)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.