Will Al-Muharraq SC win on 2026-10-28?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 28

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$77.6

Smart Money Entry

82.3¢ → 100¢

+21% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,521

Combined PnL-$185.57

Yes2 traders

Total Value$206.59

Total Shares339

Combined PnL+$107.97

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 88.2¢	$645.96	$724.78	+$78.82	59% 44610-31007 (75617)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 73.5¢	$489.43	$226.43	-$263.01	50% 12109-12317 (24426)
RO Rocko33CTR	Yesavg 28.1¢	$91.53	$198.73	+$107.19	64% 993-564 (1557)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 96¢	$94.6	$92.72	-$1.88	54% 6046-5125 (11171)
AR ARocky33<$100	Noavg 91¢	$18.2	$18	-$0.2	76% 3921-1243 (5164)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 91.2¢	$7.94	$8.64	+$0.7	53% 3056-2718 (5774)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$7.09	$7.86	+$0.77	50% 32772-32330 (65102)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$645.96

Value

$724.78

PnL

+$78.82

Record

59%

44610-31007 (75617)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$489.43

Value

$226.43

PnL

-$263.01

Record

50%

12109-12317 (24426)

Rocko33CTR

Yes

Invested

$91.53

Value

$198.73

PnL

+$107.19

Record

64%

993-564 (1557)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$94.6

Value

$92.72

PnL

-$1.88

Record

54%

6046-5125 (11171)

ARocky33<$100

Invested

$18.2

Value

$18

PnL

-$0.2

Record

76%

3921-1243 (5164)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$7.94

Value

$8.64

PnL

+$0.7

Record

53%

3056-2718 (5774)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.09

Value

$7.86

PnL

+$0.77

Record

50%

32772-32330 (65102)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.