Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Gangwon FC vs. Kuching City FC: O/U 2.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 48¢ · $809 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
3
Under 67%
2 arb excluded
$808.73
-$28.12
43.9¢ → 48¢
+9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLooARB<$100 | Underavg 47.6¢ | $285.96 | $297.65 | +$11.69 | 49% 12392-12709 (25101) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 47.6¢ | $171.06 | $183.42 | +$12.36 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 49.3¢ | $114.9 | $114.23 | -$0.67 | |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Underavg 44¢ | $313.42 | $284.93 | -$28.49 | 53% 5542-4910 (10452) |
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Overavg 56.4¢ | $224.78 | $211.42 | -$13.36 | 50% 33056-32624 (65680) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 56.4¢ | $129.49 | $111.27 | -$18.22 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 49¢ | $95.29 | $100.15 | +$4.86 | |
CH chongchong37CTR<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $8 | $8.2 | +$0.2 | 53% 92-80 (172) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 59.1¢ | $6.36 | $6.53 | +$0.17 | 52% 3684-3346 (7030) |
Invested
$285.96
Value
$297.65
PnL
+$11.69
Record
49%
12392-12709 (25101)
Both legs:
Invested
$313.42
Value
$284.93
PnL
-$28.49
Record
53%
5542-4910 (10452)
Invested
$224.78
Value
$211.42
PnL
-$13.36
Record
50%
33056-32624 (65680)
Both legs:
Invested
$8
Value
$8.2
PnL
+$0.2
Record
53%
92-80 (172)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$6.36
Value
$6.53
PnL
+$0.17
Record
52%
3684-3346 (7030)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.