Spread: Gangwon FC (-1.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Gangwon FC (67%) · Gangwon FC at 51¢ · $15K held · ends Oct 29

Gangwon FC51¢Kuching City FC49¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Gangwon FC

Consensus Traders

Gangwon FC 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.4K

Combined PnL

-$83.97

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 50.5¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralGangwon FC at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Gangwon FC

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Gangwon FC51%

Kuching City FC50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Gangwon FC4 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares9,896

Combined PnL-$179.38

Kuching City FC2 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares5,170

Combined PnL+$95.41

Gangwon FC — 67%Kuching City FC — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Gangwon FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGangwon FC 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrKuching City FC 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Gangwon FC 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Gangwon FCavg 49¢	$6.5K	$6.6K	+$152.4	50% 24685-24357 (49042)
└ Gangwon FC leg	Gangwon FCavg 49¢	$3.3K	$3.5K	+$166.53
└ Kuching City FC leg	Kuching City FCavg 48.7¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$14.13
OM omnibus-076daa	Gangwon FCavg 52.3¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$47.39	49% 18807-19204 (38011)
CH chongchong37CTR	Kuching City FCavg 48¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$48.06	53% 92-80 (172)
UP UpTheBlues	Gangwon FCavg 49.2¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$40.07	59% 45074-31472 (76546)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989ARB<$100	Gangwon FCavg 39¢	$962.99	$1.2K	+$215.32	53% 5542-4910 (10452)
└ Gangwon FC leg	Gangwon FCavg 39¢	$569.25	$817.39	+$248.14
└ Kuching City FC leg	Kuching City FCavg 48¢	$393.74	$360.93	-$32.81
LU LuckyLoo	Gangwon FCavg 50.9¢	$878.56	$707.29	-$171.27	49% 12386-12699 (25085)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Kuching City FCavg 46¢	$167.54	$214.89	+$47.35	47% 2442-2737 (5179)
HRTrading<$100	Gangwon FCavg 52.2¢	$69.65	$68.87	-$0.79	52% 3674-3334 (7008)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Gangwon FC

Invested

$6,452.87

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$152.4

Record

50%

24685-24357 (49042)

Both legs:

Gangwon FC$3,321.1649¢+$166.53

Kuching City FC$3,131.7148.7¢-$14.13

omnibus-076daa

Gangwon FC

Invested

$3,033.29

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$47.39

Record

49%

18807-19204 (38011)

chongchong37CTR

Kuching City FC

Invested

$2,306.97

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$48.06

Record

53%

92-80 (172)

UpTheBlues

Gangwon FC

Invested

$1,229.61

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$40.07

Record

59%

45074-31472 (76546)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989ARB<$100

Gangwon FC

Invested

$962.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$215.32

Record

53%

5542-4910 (10452)

Both legs:

Gangwon FC$569.2539¢+$248.14

Kuching City FC$393.7448¢-$32.81

LuckyLoo

Gangwon FC

Invested

$878.56

Value

$707.29

PnL

-$171.27

Record

49%

12386-12699 (25085)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Kuching City FC

Invested

$167.54

Value

$214.89

PnL

+$47.35

Record

47%

2442-2737 (5179)

HRTrading<$100

Gangwon FC

Invested

$69.65

Value

$68.87

PnL

-$0.79

Record

52%

3674-3334 (7008)

Research grade

NeutralGangwon FC at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Gangwon FC

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Gangwon FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGangwon FC 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrKuching City FC 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Gangwon FC 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Gangwon FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.