Will Kuching City FC win on 2026-10-29?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 91¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 29

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$116.28

Smart Money Entry

88.6¢ → 91¢

+3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares6,124

Combined PnL+$114.03

Yes1 trader

Total Value$9.75

Total Shares150

Combined PnL+$2.25

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 88¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$67.04	50% 24685-24357 (49042)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 88.5¢	$936.29	$967.66	+$31.37	49% 12386-12699 (25085)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 90¢	$670.29	$681.46	+$11.17	50% 2481-2469 (4950)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 89¢	$532.85	$509.15	-$23.7	50% 33046-32619 (65665)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 88.8¢	$475.33	$484.62	+$9.29	59% 45074-31472 (76546)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 90.4¢	$370.5	$369.59	+$4.5	58% 41194-29862 (71056)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 85¢	$163.67	$178.11	+$14.44	53% 5542-4910 (10452)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$7.5	$9.75	+$2.25	51% 5920-5591 (11511)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 89¢	$1.78	$1.7	-$0.08	52% 3674-3334 (7008)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,404.7

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$67.04

Record

50%

24685-24357 (49042)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$936.29

Value

$967.66

PnL

+$31.37

Record

49%

12386-12699 (25085)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$670.29

Value

$681.46

PnL

+$11.17

Record

50%

2481-2469 (4950)

SnakeBall

Invested

$532.85

Value

$509.15

PnL

-$23.7

Record

50%

33046-32619 (65665)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$475.33

Value

$484.62

PnL

+$9.29

Record

59%

45074-31472 (76546)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$370.5

Value

$369.59

PnL

+$4.5

Record

58%

41194-29862 (71056)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$163.67

Value

$178.11

PnL

+$14.44

Record

53%

5542-4910 (10452)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.5

Value

$9.75

PnL

+$2.25

Record

51%

5920-5591 (11511)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$1.78

Value

$1.7

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

3674-3334 (7008)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.