Will Gangwon FC win on 2026-10-29?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 63¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$4.8K
$50.77
Research grade
NeutralYes at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 62.5¢ | $3.0K | $3.2K | +$170.25 | 49% 18594-19014 (37608) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Noavg 36.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$106.7 | 53% 5498-4842 (10340) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 39.4¢ | $164.62 | $141.46 | -$11.96 | 58% 40747-29469 (70216) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $50.76 | $51.46 | +$0.7 | 59% 44601-31003 (75604) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 39.5¢ | $13.3 | $11.77 | -$1.53 | 53% 3042-2707 (5749) |
Invested
$3,034.94
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$170.25
Record
49%
18594-19014 (37608)
Invested
$1,466.43
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$106.7
Record
53%
5498-4842 (10340)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$164.62
Value
$141.46
PnL
-$11.96
Record
58%
40747-29469 (70216)
Invested
$50.76
Value
$51.46
PnL
+$0.7
Record
59%
44601-31003 (75604)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$13.3
Value
$11.77
PnL
-$1.53
Record
53%
3042-2707 (5749)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.