Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (22%) · No at 100¢ · $163 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 22%

Total Value

$163.3

Combined PnL

-$29.49

Smart Money Entry

93¢ → 100¢

+7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$162.28

Total Shares162

Combined PnL+$11.31

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.01

Total Shares2,030

Combined PnL-$40.8

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-67 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

743h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ImJustKen	Noavg 89.9¢	$101.03	$112.31	+$11.28	53% 3043-2720 (5763)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$49.95	$49.98	+$0.03	77% 9130-2738 (11868)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$18.31	$0.45	-$17.86	53% 3156-2749 (5905)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$11.28	$0.28	-$11	60% 7176-4688 (11864)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$4.62	$0.11	-$4.51	25% 180-534 (714)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$3.87	$0.09	-$3.77	19% 49-210 (259)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$1.31	$0.03	-$1.28	30% 367-838 (1205)
PO pollo07CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$1.25	$0.03	-$1.22	31% 364-814 (1178)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$31.92	$0.02	-$1.16	55% 6018-4905 (10923)

ImJustKen

Invested

$101.03

Value

$112.31

PnL

+$11.28

Record

53%

3043-2720 (5763)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$49.95

Value

$49.98

PnL

+$0.03

Record

77%

9130-2738 (11868)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.31

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$17.86

Record

53%

3156-2749 (5905)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.28

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$11

Record

60%

7176-4688 (11864)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.62

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$4.51

Record

25%

180-534 (714)

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.87

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$3.77

Record

19%

49-210 (259)

akrollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.31

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.28

Record

30%

367-838 (1205)

pollo07CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.25

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.22

Record

31%

364-814 (1178)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.92

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.16

Record

55%

6018-4905 (10923)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-67 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

743h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.