Will Flamengo win Brazil Série A?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 81¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 16

Yes81¢No19¢Ends Wed, Dec 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$227.26

Smart Money Entry

73.2¢ → 81¢

+11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes81%

No19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,485

Combined PnL+$282.33

No3 traders

Total Value$53.56

Total Shares282

Combined PnL-$55.07

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

812h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO Gooooooollllllllll	Yesavg 74.3¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$240.88	51% 1380-1348 (2728)
PE peepeepooppoop<$100	Yesavg 47.6¢	$49.01	$81.01	+$32	38% 2889-4713 (7602)
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100	Noavg 46.4¢	$89.45	$38.93	-$50.52	59% 892-608 (1500)
KO korda77<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$1.09	$13.82	+$9.44	32% 8603-18437 (27040)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Noavg 28.4¢	$12.51	$8.36	-$3.89	47% 8784-9968 (18752)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Noavg 21.5¢	$7.09	$6.27	-$0.66	50% 363-356 (719)

Gooooooollllllllll

Yes

Invested

$2,501.57

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$240.88

Record

51%

1380-1348 (2728)

peepeepooppoop<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.01

Value

$81.01

PnL

+$32

Record

38%

2889-4713 (7602)

Burkilota1CTR<$100

Invested

$89.45

Value

$38.93

PnL

-$50.52

Record

59%

892-608 (1500)

korda77<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.09

Value

$13.82

PnL

+$9.44

Record

32%

8603-18437 (27040)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Invested

$12.51

Value

$8.36

PnL

-$3.89

Record

47%

8784-9968 (18752)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Invested

$7.09

Value

$6.27

PnL

-$0.66

Record

50%

363-356 (719)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

812h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.