Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Michigan and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$1.8K
$-2.7K
0.7¢ → 0.3¢
-63% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $4.3K | $1.5K | $-2.8K | 43% 553-730 (1283) |
PO poposub | Noavg 99.8¢ | $267.44 | $264.96 | -$2.27 | 45% 2054-2465 (4519) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $57.49 | $66.21 | +$15.5 | 52% 1139-1031 (2170) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $1.94 | $4.84 | +$2.91 | 41% 1963-2768 (4731) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.48 | $0.15 | -$0.33 | — 0-10 (10) |
 LolakisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $2.72 | $0.01 | +$0.01 | 61% 655-414 (1069) |
Invested
$4,252.8
Value
$1.5K
PnL
$-2.8K
Record
43%
553-730 (1283)
Invested
$267.44
Value
$264.96
PnL
-$2.27
Record
45%
2054-2465 (4519)
Invested
$57.49
Value
$66.21
PnL
+$15.5
Record
52%
1139-1031 (2170)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$1.94
Value
$4.84
PnL
+$2.91
Record
41%
1963-2768 (4731)
Invested
$0.48
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$0.33
Record
—
0-10 (10)
LolakisCTR<$100Invested
$2.72
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$0.01
Record
61%
655-414 (1069)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.