Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Maine and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$5.2K
$-2.1K
0.7¢ → 0.4¢
-49% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 99.7¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | -$1.45 | 61% 21089-13426 (34515) |
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $4.3K | $2.1K | $-2.2K | 43% 552-726 (1278) |
PO poposub | Noavg 99.8¢ | $162.66 | $160.98 | -$1.42 | 45% 2053-2462 (4515) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $79.47 | $81.28 | +$17.41 | 52% 1139-1031 (2170) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $1.92 | $3.37 | +$1.44 | 42% 1963-2767 (4730) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.96 | $0.18 | -$0.77 | — 0-3 (3) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.06 | $0.01 | +$0.02 | 57% 13705-10482 (24187) |
balthazarInvested
$2,883.39
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$1.45
Record
61%
21089-13426 (34515)
Invested
$4,252.8
Value
$2.1K
PnL
$-2.2K
Record
43%
552-726 (1278)
Invested
$162.66
Value
$160.98
PnL
-$1.42
Record
45%
2053-2462 (4515)
Invested
$79.47
Value
$81.28
PnL
+$17.41
Record
52%
1139-1031 (2170)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$1.92
Value
$3.37
PnL
+$1.44
Record
42%
1963-2767 (4730)
Invested
$0.96
Value
$0.18
PnL
-$0.77
Record
—
0-3 (3)
Invested
$0.06
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$0.02
Record
57%
13705-10482 (24187)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.