Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 1.3¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 3

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

$2.4K

Smart Money Entry

0.7¢ → 1.3¢

+86% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares600,948

Combined PnL+$2.4K

No2 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,025

Combined PnL+$5.54

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$4.3K	$6.6K	+$2.3K	43% 552-726 (1278)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 97.7¢	$970.63	$982.55	+$5.46	56% 15299-11845 (27144)
PO poposub<$100	Noavg 99¢	$31.93	$32	+$0.07	45% 2053-2461 (4514)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$9.38	$13.13	+$3.75	42% 1963-2767 (4730)
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$10	$0.11	-$0.01	77% 263-77 (340)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,252.8

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

43%

552-726 (1278)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$970.63

Value

$982.55

PnL

+$5.46

Record

56%

15299-11845 (27144)

poposub<$100

Invested

$31.93

Value

$32

PnL

+$0.07

Record

45%

2053-2461 (4514)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.38

Value

$13.13

PnL

+$3.75

Record

42%

1963-2767 (4730)

0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.01

Record

77%

263-77 (340)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.4%

1.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4084.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

4184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.