Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Kansas and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 63%
$9.5K
$829.55
0.7¢ → 0.5¢
-21% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $4.3K | $5.1K | +$847.2 | 43% 552-726 (1278) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.4¢ | $4.0K | $4.0K | -$11.45 | 61% 21089-13426 (34515) |
PO poposub | Noavg 99.6¢ | $162.48 | $160.97 | -$0.92 | 45% 2053-2462 (4515) |
MI milkteaboba | Noavg 94.2¢ | $103.6 | $107.93 | +$5.95 | 69% 38-17 (55) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $140.9 | $81.73 | -$12.91 | 52% 1139-1031 (2170) |
 LolakisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $30.83 | $24.25 | +$1.43 | 61% 655-414 (1069) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $1 | $1.7 | +$0.7 | 42% 1963-2767 (4730) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.78 | $0.35 | -$0.43 | — 0-3 (3) |
Invested
$4,252.8
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$847.2
Record
43%
552-726 (1278)
balthazarInvested
$3,987.33
Value
$4.0K
PnL
-$11.45
Record
61%
21089-13426 (34515)
Invested
$162.48
Value
$160.97
PnL
-$0.92
Record
45%
2053-2462 (4515)
Invested
$103.6
Value
$107.93
PnL
+$5.95
Record
69%
38-17 (55)
Invested
$140.9
Value
$81.73
PnL
-$12.91
Record
52%
1139-1031 (2170)
LolakisCTR<$100Invested
$30.83
Value
$24.25
PnL
+$1.43
Record
61%
655-414 (1069)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$1
Value
$1.7
PnL
+$0.7
Record
42%
1963-2767 (4730)
Invested
$0.78
Value
$0.35
PnL
-$0.43
Record
—
0-3 (3)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.