Will Republicans win Kansas and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 100¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 29%
$7.6K
-$978.7
99.6¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 99.6¢ | $4.1K | $4.1K | -$5.66 | 61% 21089-13426 (34515) |
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $4.3K | $3.3K | -$952.8 | 43% 552-726 (1278) |
PO poposub | Noavg 99.8¢ | $171.65 | $169.91 | -$1.26 | 45% 2053-2462 (4515) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $97.62 | $37.13 | -$30.5 | 52% 1139-1031 (2170) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $1.06 | $5.83 | +$4.77 | 42% 1963-2767 (4730) |
 LolakisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $7.25 | $4.07 | +$6.81 | 61% 655-414 (1069) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.14 | $0.06 | -$0.08 | — 0-3 (3) |
balthazarInvested
$4,137.69
Value
$4.1K
PnL
-$5.66
Record
61%
21089-13426 (34515)
Invested
$4,252.8
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$952.8
Record
43%
552-726 (1278)
Invested
$171.65
Value
$169.91
PnL
-$1.26
Record
45%
2053-2462 (4515)
Invested
$97.62
Value
$37.13
PnL
-$30.5
Record
52%
1139-1031 (2170)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$1.06
Value
$5.83
PnL
+$4.77
Record
42%
1963-2767 (4730)
LolakisCTR<$100Invested
$7.25
Value
$4.07
PnL
+$6.81
Record
61%
655-414 (1069)
Invested
$0.14
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$0.08
Record
—
0-3 (3)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.