Will Republicans win Kansas and Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 99¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$9.8K
$196.23
99.1¢ → 99¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 99.1¢ | $4.9K | $4.9K | +$5.5 | 61% 21089-13426 (34515) |
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $4.3K | $4.5K | +$247.2 | 43% 552-726 (1278) |
PO poposub | Noavg 99.1¢ | $265.64 | $265.99 | +$0.35 | 45% 2053-2462 (4515) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 1¢ | $187.58 | $141.25 | -$46.32 | 52% 1139-1031 (2170) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $78.3 | $67.82 | -$10.48 | 42% 1963-2767 (4730) |
 LolakisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $0.08 | $0.07 | -$0.01 | 61% 655-414 (1069) |
balthazarInvested
$4,859.24
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$5.5
Record
61%
21089-13426 (34515)
Invested
$4,252.8
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$247.2
Record
43%
552-726 (1278)
Invested
$265.64
Value
$265.99
PnL
+$0.35
Record
45%
2053-2462 (4515)
Invested
$187.58
Value
$141.25
PnL
-$46.32
Record
52%
1139-1031 (2170)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$78.3
Value
$67.82
PnL
-$10.48
Record
42%
1963-2767 (4730)
LolakisCTR<$100Invested
$0.08
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$0.01
Record
61%
655-414 (1069)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.