Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

0.7¢ → 0.4¢

-35% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares620,136

Combined PnL$-1.5K

No2 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,031

Combined PnL-$2.41

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$4.3K	$2.7K	$-1.6K	43% 552-726 (1278)
balthazar	Noavg 99.7¢	$867.05	$866.07	-$0.97	61% 21089-13426 (34515)
PO poposub	Noavg 99.9¢	$162.73	$160.88	-$1.44	45% 2053-2462 (4515)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$75.41	$75.28	+$12.67	52% 1139-1031 (2170)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$3.38	$13.53	+$10.15	42% 1963-2767 (4730)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.08	$0.09	+$0.13	57% 13705-10482 (24187)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,252.8

Value

$2.7K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

43%

552-726 (1278)

balthazar

Invested

$867.05

Value

$866.07

PnL

-$0.97

Record

61%

21089-13426 (34515)

poposub

Invested

$162.73

Value

$160.88

PnL

-$1.44

Record

45%

2053-2462 (4515)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.41

Value

$75.28

PnL

+$12.67

Record

52%

1139-1031 (2170)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.38

Value

$13.53

PnL

+$10.15

Record

42%

1963-2767 (4730)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.09

PnL

+$0.13

Record

57%

13705-10482 (24187)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.5%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6535.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

6635.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.