Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 1.8¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$15.8K
$11.1K
0.7¢ → 1.8¢
+157% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $4.3K | $15.3K | +$11.0K | 43% 552-726 (1278) |
LI lissartter | Noavg 95.8¢ | $446.07 | $456.56 | +$10.49 | 42% 5216-7149 (12365) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $9.12 | $9.12 | +$0 | 56% 15299-11845 (27144) |
SB sbimbgCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $1.53 | $1.27 | -$0.25 | 70% 3146-1357 (4503) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.14 | $0.44 | +$0.31 | — 0-1 (1) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $1.45 | $0.31 | -$0.4 | 57% 13671-10458 (24129) |
Invested
$4,252.8
Value
$15.3K
PnL
+$11.0K
Record
43%
552-726 (1278)
Invested
$446.07
Value
$456.56
PnL
+$10.49
Record
42%
5216-7149 (12365)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$9.12
Value
$9.12
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
15299-11845 (27144)
Invested
$1.53
Value
$1.27
PnL
-$0.25
Record
70%
3146-1357 (4503)
Invested
$0.14
Value
$0.44
PnL
+$0.31
Record
—
0-1 (1)
Invested
$1.45
Value
$0.31
PnL
-$0.4
Record
57%
13671-10458 (24129)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.