Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 99¢ · $482 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$482.48
-$0.12
98.4¢ → 98.6¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 98.7¢ | $287.61 | $285.42 | -$2.19 | 61% 21044-13396 (34440) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 97.9¢ | $113.43 | $113.64 | +$0.21 | 56% 15296-11843 (27139) |
PO poposub<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $31.83 | $32 | +$0.17 | 45% 2053-2461 (4514) |
 PaddyAlpha<$100 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $20.63 | $20.75 | +$0.13 | 59% 981-676 (1657) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $15.01 | $14.97 | -$0.04 | — 0-1 (1) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $9.57 | $10.31 | +$0.74 | 42% 1963-2767 (4730) |
BR BreakTheBankCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $4.28 | $4.99 | +$0.71 | 43% 552-726 (1278) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $0.24 | $0.39 | +$0.16 | 57% 13663-10453 (24116) |
balthazarInvested
$287.61
Value
$285.42
PnL
-$2.19
Record
61%
21044-13396 (34440)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$113.43
Value
$113.64
PnL
+$0.21
Record
56%
15296-11843 (27139)
Invested
$31.83
Value
$32
PnL
+$0.17
Record
45%
2053-2461 (4514)
PaddyAlpha<$100Invested
$20.63
Value
$20.75
PnL
+$0.13
Record
59%
981-676 (1657)
Invested
$15.01
Value
$14.97
PnL
-$0.04
Record
—
0-1 (1)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$9.57
Value
$10.31
PnL
+$0.74
Record
42%
1963-2767 (4730)
Invested
$4.28
Value
$4.99
PnL
+$0.71
Record
43%
552-726 (1278)
Invested
$0.24
Value
$0.39
PnL
+$0.16
Record
57%
13663-10453 (24116)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.