Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 99¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

-$322

Smart Money Entry

99.4¢ → 99.3¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares5,146

Combined PnL-$0.88

Yes6 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares629,053

Combined PnL-$321.12

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 99.4¢	$4.9K	$4.9K	-$0.56	61% 21089-13426 (34515)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$4.3K	$3.9K	-$352.8	43% 552-726 (1278)
PO poposub	Noavg 99.3¢	$213.55	$212.97	-$0.31	45% 2053-2462 (4515)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$118.94	$141.61	+$22.68	52% 1139-1031 (2170)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$36	$39	+$3	42% 1963-2767 (4730)
AliciaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$19.24	$24.58	+$5.34	76% 423-134 (557)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$15.9	$15.9	-$0.01	52% 4965-4595 (9560)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$14.91	$14.9	-$0.01	52% 2459-2280 (4739)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.3	$0.36	+$0.63	56% 15305-11848 (27153)
themagicofcinemaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.06	$0.09	+$0.04	66% 413-210 (623)

balthazar

Invested

$4,870.23

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$0.56

Record

61%

21089-13426 (34515)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,252.8

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$352.8

Record

43%

552-726 (1278)

poposub

Invested

$213.55

Value

$212.97

PnL

-$0.31

Record

45%

2053-2462 (4515)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$118.94

Value

$141.61

PnL

+$22.68

Record

52%

1139-1031 (2170)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36

Value

$39

PnL

+$3

Record

42%

1963-2767 (4730)

AliciaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.24

Value

$24.58

PnL

+$5.34

Record

76%

423-134 (557)

korda77<$100

Invested

$15.9

Value

$15.9

PnL

-$0.01

Record

52%

4965-4595 (9560)

merod<$100

Invested

$14.91

Value

$14.9

PnL

-$0.01

Record

52%

2459-2280 (4739)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.36

PnL

+$0.63

Record

56%

15305-11848 (27153)

themagicofcinemaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.09

PnL

+$0.04

Record

66%

413-210 (623)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.