Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Ohio?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 99¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$12.9K

Combined PnL

$3.2K

Smart Money Entry

98.4¢ → 99.2¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares619,660

Combined PnL+$3.2K

No4 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares5,250

Combined PnL+$23.99

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$4.3K	$7.5K	+$3.2K	43% 552-726 (1278)
balthazar	Noavg 98.4¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	+$21.41	61% 21089-13426 (34515)
PO poposub	Noavg 98.2¢	$263.37	$266.01	+$2.64	45% 2053-2462 (4515)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 1¢	$150	$127.5	-$22.5	42% 1963-2767 (4730)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$49.92	$49.89	-$0.03	52% 2459-2280 (4739)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$31.65	$31.62	-$0.03	52% 4965-4595 (9560)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$27.62	$25.09	+$1.98	52% 1139-1031 (2170)
LolakisCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$65.86	$14.37	-$21.93	61% 655-414 (1069)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.14	$0.44	+$0.31	— 0-3 (3)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,252.8

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

43%

552-726 (1278)

balthazar

Invested

$4,821.28

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$21.41

Record

61%

21089-13426 (34515)

poposub

Invested

$263.37

Value

$266.01

PnL

+$2.64

Record

45%

2053-2462 (4515)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$150

Value

$127.5

PnL

-$22.5

Record

42%

1963-2767 (4730)

merod<$100

Invested

$49.92

Value

$49.89

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

2459-2280 (4739)

korda77<$100

Invested

$31.65

Value

$31.62

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

4965-4595 (9560)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.62

Value

$25.09

PnL

+$1.98

Record

52%

1139-1031 (2170)

LolakisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.86

Value

$14.37

PnL

-$21.93

Record

61%

655-414 (1069)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.44

PnL

+$0.31

Record

—

0-3 (3)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.